Thursday, March 22, 2012

Preparing for Failure in Syria

An article by Daniel Byman appeared on March 20, 2012 on Foreign Affairs website titled: Preparing for Failure in Syria, I went through the article and obviously the author while confessing defeat to their project dubbed 'Arab Spring' has based all his ideology on how their mouthpieces, NATO media has been working hard over the past year to spread the propaganda on Syria, with the same rhetoric and exactly the same wordings. An old method that works fine everywhere but didn't work in Syria for a simple reason unseen by western intelligence plotters which is: Syrians are very much aware of such games, have a much comprehensive understanding to their country's geopolitical importance and know who are their enemies quite well, therefore, they know what they're facing.

Usually, I go by quoting an article and adding my comments on it, in this time however, I'll try to rewrite the whole article with a more realistic perspective and away from NATO propaganda that is meant to serve the sole purpose: demonize a government to justify launching their killing machines and occupy sovereign countries to install puppet regimes who will become their loyal servants. So here we go:

For a year now, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has faced minor riots calling for the end of his government. Although the Syrian government are accused by its enemies of killing more than 8,000 of Syrians based on opposition and NATO figures abroad the country and proved false, while failing to mention the killings of more than 2,500 army and security personnel from conscript soldiers to generals in targeted assassinations as well as hundreds of pro-Syrian government civilians by opposition thugs, kidnapped and tortured far more, Syrians remain immune to the provocation. Every day, they fight back attempts to intimidate them by terrorists and media onslaught propaganda, they refuse to take up arms to revenge from these terrorists and rely totally on their government legitimate forces from army and security in their struggle to protect their country from an evil NATO invasion. The fading countries of the so called International Community is against them: Europe serving as tools of the United States and much of the regimes in the Arab world have joined efforts to impose unjust unilateral sanctions since they failed to pass a UNSC binding resolution to impose UN sanctions. Inside and outside the country, calls resound for a NATO invasion to assist the terrorists.

The United States finds itself walking a fine line in Syria. On the one hand, should it succeed in enforcing a regime change in Syria, Washington and its allies would rejoice. Syria is Iran's oldest and closest Arab ally, has long opposed israel and its crimes against humanity, has always backed the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, and, at times, has aided anti-U.S. occupation forces in Iraq. On the other hand, Washington knows that should the entire state collapse, it would usher in a horrific humanitarian crisis, long sought and failed for the Middle East if we remember 'Creative Chaos' by infamous Condaliza Rice, and could result in terrorism it planted to go out of its control and even a regional war might break.

Yet efforts to topple Assad and invade Syria may fracture the country. Assad, like many patriotic rulers has made his country immune to external interference. The military, the police, the courts, the economy - everything - is structured to preserve his country, including high awareness among people, self-efficient economy and zero public debt. It is hard to break Assad's government without breaking Syria, which is extremely costly to invaders.

The toughest pressure on Syria so far - sanctions - reveals the economic strength of the Syrian state, had a small percentage of such sanctions being imposed on any other state including those leading the so called international community would fracture that state within few months. As intended, the sanctions have affected mostly the poorest of the Syrian civilians and raised pressure on their lives. The currency has maintained its value over the first 10 months and due to extreme pressure from the two Arab gulf states selling out their own economies to destroy the Lira through black market heavy interference, it has lost half of its value and regained some of it back, promised investment capitals has fled the country. Faisal Al Qudsi, a son of a former Syrian president, turned businessman in London somehow, claims that the country's GDP has fallen by almost 50 percent due to lost tourism and oil exports, no thanks to terrorism and unjust sanctions. Syria's once considerable foreign exchange reserves are still in place. The Sunni Arab middle class, which had strongly opposed any external intervention in Syria, is now more stiff in their resistance after waving any doubts left to what's planned to their country.

Economic pressure have proven a failure in weakening the country, but they can hollow out the state on the long run, unless the Syrians take the initiative and start producing what they used to import. Over time, smugglers will make greater use of Syria's long and porous borders with Iraq and Lebanon, creating black markets that will replace legitimate businesses. (Note how now it's long and porous and when US was occupying Iraq and israel was threatening Lebanon it was asking Syria to control these borders as a responsibility to protect their invading forces!). Meanwhile, the Syrian government is relying on ever growing developing countries to forge new business trade lines away from the failing states of the west. Merchants are encouraged by the Syrian government to invest in such new lines. Eventually, there's no way such sanctions will ever bear fruit, on the contrary, it backlashed on those countries imposing sanctions or trying to on Syria.

The Syrian government massive legitimacy amongst its citizens poses further dangers to its enemies. More over a year the opposition failed to introduce a program for the country should they come to power, despite all the efforts spend day and night by Syria's enemy states. If the Syrian president Assad were assassinated by presidents killers trio Obama, Sarkozy and Cameron, the Syrian leadership which has strong ruling establishments, would replace him. It is not clear, however, who would take his place. These establishments, the Parliament, government, army leadership.. would manage to guarantee the country does not fall in chaos. Further, any successor would continue in the same path and even escalate the matter with Syria's enemies to revenge the murder and will definitely lead a war with israel, such a war long awaited by the strong Syrian army and Syria's allies.

That leaves the oppositions with no hope at all in serving their masters in NATO. The only thing that has matched the Syrian oppositions treachery is its lack of unity. The anti-Syrian government figures are divded along ethnic, sectarian, political, sponsors and geographic lines. The Syrian National Council, formed by Turkey in Istanbul, claims to speak for all Syrians, but there are groups that differ from it on all key issues such as national rights for the country's Kurdish minority, the Syrian Flag, language, which country to surrender Syria to under their control.. etc. Nor does the SNC necessarily speak for the Syrians inside the country being proved that they were brought from nowhere and forced into the media outside Syria only. And although many among the thousands of terrorists brought from different countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya and others have claimed to work under the Free Syrian Army umbrella, there is no true command-and-control structure, and much of their crime occurs locally by groups little or no loyalty to the FSA leadership in exile, rather more to the CIA controlling Al Qaeda figures it managed to bring to the country.

There are reports that local violence is already taking on a sectarian dimension. Assad like his father, has formed a secular state thus the government forces are a combination of all sects in Syria, which their sects were targeted systematically one after another through direct influence from abroad, like by some Sunni countries in the Gulf trying to bribe Army generals, or by dwarfs like for instance Junblat, a Druze party leader in Lebanon who tried to sway Syrian Druze to defect from the army and received a severe blow to his reputation in the entire region after the Syrian Druze sent him a harsh message confirming their loyalty to their country only. The west's best option to initiate a civil war in Syria by inflicting strife along sectarian lines has dramatically failed. Syrian community proved very intervened with roots deep in the ground. Seems the western plotters missed the lesson in history class during their school when it reads that Syria was the only haven to all those who faced atrocities in their countries and fled to Syria, from the old times to recent victims of West crimes, from Armenians fleeing massacres by Ottomans to Palestinians fleeing death squads of Haganah and Irgun in occupied Palestine to the Iraqis fleeing US invasion in Iraq whom over a million civilian ran with their lives to Syria and many others throughout history.

Outside powers are stirring the pot now in public after months of secret covert operations. Turkey officially denies that it is arming the terrorists, but it is hosting the FSA. Sources claim that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also helping to arm the terrorists in secret and recently the foreign affair ministers of both countries publicly announced they're arming these terrorists, while never stopping to pressing tribes along Syria's borders in Iraq to join the NATO agents. In the United States, Mad dog Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) even called for the U.S. allies to arm the terrorists and said, "People that are being massacred deserve to have the ability to defend themselves." Due to his lack of of political strategical thinking, this message was conceived in the region as the right of Iraqis to fight the US forces, the Palestinians to fight the israeli aggression and crimes against humanity committed at them on daily bases, Lebanese to defend their land as well from israelis.. All these powers, however, have slightly different interests in the region and could end up backing different horses once their dream come true, before they wake up from their daydreaming. Meanwhile, Iran recently docked warships at the Syrian port of Tartus, which, according to the country's Fars News Agency, is a "serious warning" that intervention in Syria could provoke a region-wide war.

So arming the terrorists, in the thinking of CIA and Pentagon strategists, might boost the chances of the Syrian government falling, but the economic shock and escalate domestic and regional violence that would accompany it also increases the likelihood that Syria will become a failed state. A failed Syria would not be the world's only humanitarian tragedy, after Somalia, Iraq, South Sudan, Libya, Gaza, Yemen.., but it would be among the world's most dangerous.

Accurate figures are hard to come by (never a good sign), but by some unverified accounts, Syria has already produced at least 200,000 internally displaced persons and refugees, while still hosting at the same time over 450,000 Palestinians and a 1 million Iraqis not to mention thousands of Lebanese. Almost 80,000 have gone to Jordan, including about 70,000 of them being working there for the past 5 years at least, at least 10,000 to Turkey most of which were forced to head there and most of which came back and those still there are somehow affiliated with the terrorists as family relatives and terrorists themselves, 18,000 to Lebanon were also reported by NATO media while Lebanese own provincial officials ridicule just figure and count about a couple of thousands including those terrorists who fled Baba Amro after it was cleansed by the Syrian army. All-out collapse could lead to hundreds of thousands more. And beyond the humanitarian concern, which was never cared for by the West throughout history, refugees are also carriers of conflict. Caught in limbo, their grievances can fester: Refugee camps in Turkey are already serving as bases for the FSA to recruit and organize, as I just mentioned, and similar camps elsewhere in the region could lead to greater involvement of Syria's neighbors in the conflict. Fleeing terror, refugees also bring with them tales of persecution and desire for revenge. In Iraq, this might provoke Sunni rage against the Shias, whom are pictured by the west as associated with Iran and with the Alawis in Lebanon (so vague connection). In Lebanon, too, fleeing Sunnis might incite violence against the country's large Shia population, upsetting the uneasy peace Lebanon has enjoyed since its civil war ended in 1991, thanks only to the bravery of the Syrian army.

Other terrorists affiliated with the USA CIA, are already acting and would further exploit a failed Syrian state. Ayman Al Zawahiri, CIA's most precious asset as the new leader of the CIA formed Al Qaeda and a loyal member to CIA sponsored Muslim Brotherhood factions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and elsewhere, praised the terrorists he called 'Lions of Syria' and called on his fellow terrorists from the Muslim Brotherhood fighters to go to Syria to help destroy the country. Indeed, Syria has witnessed such Turkey and USA backed terrorists crimes against its civilians. In February, James Clapper, the U.S. director of national intelligence, warned that "Al Qaeda in Iraq is extending its reach into Syria", and an Iraqi government official contended that Al Qaeda in Iraq has monopolized the flow of arms into Syria, with the assistance of NSA spying satellites, increasing its leverage. As things worsen for the terrorists fighting Syrian government, the chance that they would turn to other terrorists for help grows, as we see they keep begging for NATO intervention.

NATO strategists try their best to oust the Syrian legitimate government, the Libyan style, but fear the Syrian state will not fail automatically or overnight, so planning to prevent that from happening automatically and out of their control or to mitigate the consequences should begin immediately. This planning should go hand in hand, in their vision, with efforts to oust the government. The survival of the Syrian president, who is far stronger than before the riots, is complicating the whole plot, and the significant U.S. interests at play make his departure vital. As you see, it's the U.S. interests and never the Syrian people aspirations as they keep lying in their media.
The first step would be for NATO strategists, to create an allied coalition to pressure Iran, Russia and other friends of Syria. Efforts such as the failed Friends of Syria -a broad puppets of countries serving U.S orders- is a miserable example, but nevertheless, why not waste more time to try? More important, they believe however, is to create a much smaller contact group that would include Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and key Western states to ensure that lines of communication among anti-Syria forces are open.
To prevent the opposition from further floundering, the allies must work much harder and together to revive the opposition again. Money and arms should not stop to funnel to terrorists these oppositions claim they're in charge of, in order to push them to unite and work together at least for once. They should also be used to strengthen more pro-Western anti-Syrian elements of the opposition and get them ready to take power in the postwar state! Indeed, empowering the right servants today is essential for ensuring that revenge killings are rare in a failed Syria and that a new government follows a more servant policy, unlike the tragedy that happened in Iraq after 8 years. To be sure, more weapons still certainly lead to more bloodshed. But for now, the terrorists in Syria are finding difficulties in arming themselves since most weapons sent by CIA and France are landing in the hands of the Syrian army. Rather than oppose the inevitable, the United States must try to manage the militarization to increase the chances that it will not degenerate into further thuggery and radicalization that might lash-back.

Further, the allies should not stop their year long efforts to encourage negotiations within opposition ranks to guarantee that Syria has a system of government in place for the dream transition, as well to pre-empt one possible source of infighting. Although continued bloodshed makes the announcement of a new Syrian government unrealistic, it would be useful for the U.S. interests to have a framework for such a puppet government in place so that diplomats can move quickly should an opportunity arise. It would also be helpful for serving the U.S. interests to never lose hope in the opposition to build a vision of a future Syria that could fragment the country in small ethnic emirates to justify the existence of a Jewish israel state on occupied Palestinian land, the future tiny emirates will have to ensure they fight amongst each other.

Diplomacy and working with the Syrian oppositions and terrorists are long-term projects, and more than impossible. They will not save Syrians in Homs or other beleaguered cities then. Nor will they remove Syrian government now from power in any near term. But in many ways, they are more important than the current single-minded focus on the Syrian president figure. Ensuring Syria fails, even as Assad leaves, is essential for the country's enemies interests, and acting now is essential for avoiding the total collapse of the USA and its allies.
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Above is my paragraph to paragraph rewriting of the lame article, straightening facts and correcting information. I didn't intend to copy the article as a whole, rather to criticize the way west media tries to demonize anti-U.S. interests governments to justify invading one country after another, slaughtering thousands, if not tens of thousands of civilians to feed the greed of weapon lobbies and warlords ruling the NATO member states.

The original article can be found at: 

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